Free Lunch-n-Learn: Using Mathematical Models for Cyber Risk

Mathematical models provide a strong foundation for analyzing and quantifying risk. These
models use probability theory to support forecasting risk in a variety of circumstances.
When we ask questions about risk we're really trying to make a decisions. Risk is just
another way of saying we're uncertain about the outcome of an event. By understanding
what models can do we arm ourselves with the skills to make better decisions. My
background is an enterprise assessor that needed to answer these questions for my clients
and when I found no reasonably priced, accessible tools, I built what I needed. Now I'm
sharing that with people like you, and organization that want to answer their top questions
about risk. I have produced a framework of methods and models including an exciting new
model that goes well beyond what current probabilistic algorithms provide to forecast event
sequences and behavior.

Lessons Learned:
Quantifying risk doesn't have to be difficult. There's a great deal of confusion and fear
around the subject. Without the right tools however, it can be nearly impossible. Only
recently has become possible to do this work on a laptop with Excel. Most cyber
professionals just don't have the right tools, and training.

Learning Objectives:

• Basic understanding of what these kinds of mathematical models can do.
• Basic understanding of the two foundational methods of quantifying risk.
• A simple formula for calculating risk.
• A glimpse into what the future of risk forecasting may look like.